Why Chase Rate Tells You More Than Batting Average Ever Will

"Focus on the process, and the results will take care of themselves."
— Bill Walsh, legendary NFL coach

In sports, as in life, results-based evaluation dominates the discussion—but it can also be wildly misleading. In baseball, batting average—probably the most widely quoted stat by announcers and pundits—is easy to grasp and often serves as a stand-in for overall hitting skill. It offers a tidy, familiar package by which hitters are commonly judged.

However, by focusing on this narrow, results-driven metric alone, we risk overlooking the deeper truths about a hitter’s effectiveness, discipline, and the actual value they create at the plate. In this article, I’ll argue that process is a more meaningful measure of skill and a stronger predictor of long-term success—using a hitter’s chase rate as the primary lens.

What is Chase Rate - and What Constitutes a Strong Hitting Process?

Chase rate, also referred to as O-Swing %, is simply the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone at which a batter swings. Process can be defined in many ways, but for our purposes, lets break it down into four categories: Swing decisions (plate discipline), quality of contact, approach and situational awareness, and consistency over time.

Why Plate Discipline Matters?

Simply put, good plate discipline can be narrowed down to swinging at strikes and laying off balls. A simple idea, but much more difficult when put into practice. When we think about swinging at strikes, a hitter with a good process will specifically look for pitches in the strike zone allowing them to make solid contact and drive the ball.

Understanding count leverage is also crucial. When behind in the count, it is imperative to lay off chase pitches - pitches intentionally thrown outside of the zone to entice a hitter to “chase” a bad pitch in pursuit of an easy strike. Chase pitches generally come into play when the count is in the pitcher’s favor, such as an 0-2 or 1-2 count. Hitters must understand the situational advantage or disadvantage that a pitcher has at any time during his at-bat. Patience is also an enormous factor. Selective swing decisions and protecting the strike zone while not excessively expanding, and taking walks when presented, is a hallmark of a sound hitting process.

Ultimately, plate discipline equals sustainable production – hitters who rarely chase force pitchers into the zone, receive better pitches to hit and take more walks. Moreover, this leads to better contact and power. Swinging at better pitches leads to higher barrel rates, higher xwOBA, and more extra-base hits.

How do pitchers exploit high-chase hitters? One major way is through sequencing and setups. Pitchers can throw fewer strikes, knowing that undisciplined hitters will get themselves out. High strikeout rates often follow as an elevated chase rate generally leads to more whiffs and thus more strikeouts.

Cast Study: Javier Baez vs. Juan Soto

Let’s look at a couple of pointed examples. Take Javier Baez, for example. In 2018, he had a break-out season, hitting .290 with 34 home runs, a .366 wOBA, and looked like the league’s next big superstar. But if we look under the hood, we see that he chased 43.5% of pitches outside of the zone, landing at the fourth worst chase rate in the league that year and a 33.9% whiff rate – eighth worst in the league among qualified hitters. While he was able to overcome these red flags in 2018 due to impressive raw power and contact luck, the great success that landed him second in NL MVP voting that year quickly diminished. Up to this point in his 12-year career he is a .252 hitter, sporting a career wOBA of .313, below the league average, a 4.5% walk rate, nearly half the league average, and a strike-out rate of 26.8% - 4.6% above the league average. These years of inconsistent performance and disappointing results relative to that break-out 2018 season are a sharp case of results outpacing process.

Now, let’s look at Juan Soto. At his worst, he swung at 20.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone; and at his best, 12.2%. So far this year he is at 14.8%, which is the best in the major leagues. In fact, since 2021, he has finished either first or second in the league for chase rate every year. This has also led to an extremely high walk rate. During that same period his walk rate was in the top 1% of baseball every year – his career walk rate is a staggering 18.8% - with two out of the last six years eclipsing 20%. His career strike-out rate? A mere 16.9% - the league average during that time was 22.2% Through the end of 2024, his first 7 seasons in the big leagues, his slash line was .285/.421/.532. He is the poster child of a disciplined, process driven approach at the plate, which has led to long term, consistently high performance.

While batting average has its place, it is outdated on its own. Chase rate more accurately conveys why a hitter is succeeding or struggling and what may be likely to happen in the future. To understand a hitter’s process, and better predict future results, chase rate must factor into the equation and belongs at the top of your list of important metrics.